The exchange rate system changed in August 1997 had many costs for Indonesian’s economy. Since August 1997, Bank Indonesia changed their nominal anchor and monetary target from monetary aggregate to interest rate and choose the inflation targeting as its monetary target. The monetary phenomenon changes and the fluctuation of monetary variables could be seen as the shocks in economy. This paper employs quarterly time series data from 1983.1 to 2005.4 to endogenously determine the timing of structural break for interest rate, exchange rate, inflation and output gap data in Indonesia. The Innovational Outlier model (IO) and the Additive Outlier model (AO) are then use to test for nonstationarity. Moreover the coefficient for all dummy variables such as intercept, slope and time of the break are found to be significant except output gap data. The next analysis is concern for the impact of monetary shock or monetary structural break to New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). This paper adopts and modifies the Batini-Haldane (1999) and Tanuwijaya-Meng (2005) NKPC model to analyze impact of exchange rate and interest rate impact to inflation. This model use backward and forward looking information, output gap, output expectation, depreciation/appreciation, monetary aggregate growth as variables that influence the inflation. The result shows that inflation expectation and depreciation/appreciation have a positive significant impact to inflation. In the other side the output gap just has an impact for long run. The wider output gap will make the higher inflation. In the long run, Indonesia Phillips Curve has a vertical shape. The last result is the structural break in real exchange rate and interest rate has a significant impact to inflation behavior.
Key words: Structural break, Innovational Outlier model, Additive Outlier Model, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Indonesia.
Paper ini telah dipresentasikan dalam Seminar Akademik Tahunan Ekonomi III, UI-Bank Indonesia, Jakarta, 6-7 Desember 2006, dan dimuat di Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, UKSW, 2008
Full Paper dapat diperoleh di http://rapidshare.com/files/151336224/ikarahutami_Jeda_Struktural_dalam_Suku_Bunga_Dan_Kurs_.doc
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