Paper ini ditulis bersama Sri Yani, dan dimuat di Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia No. 2 Desember 2006
abstractnya
This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of Indonesia to its five major trading partners for the period 1975-2005. The standard deviation of the percentage change in the real exchange rate is employed to measure the exchange rate volatility. ARDL bounds testing approach procedure and error-correction models are used to obtain the estimates of the co-integrating relations and the short-run dynamics. The results obtained in this paper, on the whole, provide evidence that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on exports (in the short run) and a significant positive effect on import (in the short and long run). In the short and long run, foreign GDP and term of trade do not have a significant effect cause of export commodities disadvantage
lebih lanjut bisa dibaca di http://rapidshare.com/files/130317878/ika_rahutami_volatilitas_nilai_tukar.doc
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