DAMPAK VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP ARUS PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA (PENDEKATAN ARDL-ECM)

This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of Indonesia to its five major trading partners for the period 1975-2005. The standard deviation of the percentage change in the real exchange rate is employed to measure the exchange rate volatility. ARDL bounds testing approach procedure and error-correction models are used to obtain the estimates of the co-integrating relations and the short-run dynamics. The results obtained in this paper, on the whole, provide evidence that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on exports (in the short run) and a significant positive effect on import (in the short and long run). In the short and long run, foreign GDP and term of trade do not have a significant effect cause of export commodities disadvantage

tulisan lengkap ini dimuat dalam Jurnal ISEI 2007 (ditulis bersama Sri Yani)
yang jelas hasil tulisan ini menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas nilai tukar merupakan hal yang tidak dapat dianggap sepele. dan yang menarik adalah perilaku eksportir dan importir yang sangat berbeda. Yang satu tidak risk averse yang satunya lagi risk lover. atau justru ini menunjukkan ketidakkompetitifan kita dan ketergantungan kita pada impor yang tingi?